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Philippines Expanded Travel Ban

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by redhorse, Mar 13, 2020.

  1. ChMacQueen

    ChMacQueen DI Forum Patron Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    https://informationisbeautiful.net/...68-8dc8WeWCNHcOeKEn3Y58CciNfD1w7n2d_BJwyUrmrY

    This tends to sum it up by the numbers pretty well. The death rate for 1-39 is 0.2% (or lower), 40-49 is 0.4%, and under 50-59 is 1.2%. It only peaks at 80+ at almost 15%. Those under 50 will usually not even really think much of this having mild flu symptoms at 81% where you just rest at home. Those with problems are the elderly and especially very elderly where most of the severity cases are.

    With all of this in mind its horrible to collapse the economy of the country or even the world because of very elderly who could just themselves take extra major precautions. I know most here are older themselves with no interest in dying but is it worth collapsing the global economy to slightly lower the risk further then it would be if elderly simply had to self seclude a bit more as well as their direct caretakers? I hardly wish to see a global recession that will destroy untold millions of lives simply because we can't accept that people die of old age and its generally due to their body breaking down to not being able to handle diseases, sickness, viruses, and such especially as those at the highest risk already have potentially fatal issues.
     
  2. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    I agree but cannot understand WHY they don't know the number of asymptomatic cases - as far as I am aware it can be done by sampling for specific antibodies.

    But the figures I quoted were for deaths of infected cases ("So near 9% fatality rate of infected cases") - so if that is the data they have for Covid-19 then it is relevant.
     
  3. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    They have no idea this will remain a disease especially affecting the elderly - people seem to miss the point that viruses mutate very easily and if this virus does mutate to a more infectious/lethal virus then it would be too late to stop it in the way they can now.

    They may be playing with fire if stringent controls are not in place - throwing fire at the elderly is okay for some younger people to postulate, but if they get burnt as well then they will want a rethink.

    I do strongly agree with you that people should take precautions but if you read this forum and some people's comments on news media you will know that many are simply not convinced and will bring up every conceivable argument to do nothing at all.
     
  4. djfinn6230

    djfinn6230 DI Senior Member Restricted Account

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    Yeah, 9% would be the fatality rate of known infected cases. That number is currently too small due to the lack of testing. They seem to be multiplying known infections X 10 as an estimate and that number may be too large. I guess the South Korea data is the most reliable since they test young people and young people while Italy tests only people with serious symptoms. But no matter how we look at it, it will be bad for the next 4 weeks until summer temps begin in northern longitudes. Here we are about 9 degrees north of the equator which is good. Most of the big problems are occurring in winter conditions at 30 degrees north and higher. That is the only thing good we have going for us in Pinas.


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  5. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Forum Adept

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    I understand your point about how severely this will hit the economy. Many people will be impacted to the point that they may be unable to make their mortgage payment and loose their home. Most airlines will face bankruptcy by the end of May.

    On the other hand the 15% death rate could easily double if healthcare resources are overwhelmed. The current 15% death rate is based on lung ventilators having been available to those who needed them.

    The intent of the government is to slow down the growth of the illness in order to keep the number of infected patients who need ventilators under the number available.

    The good news is that Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong have been able to greatly reduce the rate of infection. Their population has already been trained by SARS.

    Here are two articles about the shortage of lung ventilators.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/health...emic-spreads-will-there-be-enough-ventilators

    https://www.ft.com/content/5a2ffc78-6550-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

    Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong
    https://time.com/5802293/coronavirus-covid19-singapore-hong-kong-taiwan/
     
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  6. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    And being split into many islands.
     
  7. djfinn6230

    djfinn6230 DI Senior Member Restricted Account

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    [​IMG]
    From WHO


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  8. ChMacQueen

    ChMacQueen DI Forum Patron Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    15% death rate is only for those over 80+, 8% is for those 70-79. Now considering this how much of the population falls into these categories? This would put at most 7% of the worlds population into the higher risk factor and that is using very loose controls while more stringent would be half of that. Average life expectancy in the world today for males is under 71 years old and females 75.5 years old.

    I can't agree with this part. It makes sense that we don't know the true infection rates because many people brush it off as a minor flu at home and don't go to the hospital due to fear hospital being more dangerous (which is often the case) as well as lack of money or transportation. However deaths are going to be fairly accurate because anyone who dies with symptoms will be tested more then likely keeping the death count fairly accurate with a small margin of error while infection rates have an insanely huge margin of error with possibly being even over 2-3x what we currently say infections have been since we have had reports some positive tested people just had the sniffles and a light cough for a couple days and then better. What this would do is simply majorly decrease the real death rate significantly.

    https://informationisbeautiful.net/...Vp4NpklzCuFbNvq5ZY6HYnnH42u7Rn50x2U_skXMRpcSA

    This link is to data from some of the top world health organizations and doesn't even account for the fact that many infections we don't even know about. Crunch the numbers and the simple truth is many of us aren't at any real risk. Now I'm not saying to be stupid and lets all go to crowded places to spread the virus, of course take some basic precautions such as avoiding big crowds and some travel restrictions if not avoiding major travel. But based on the numbers it really seems stupid to be willing to destroy economies because of just *fear*.
     
  9. Jens K

    Jens K DI Forum Adept

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    The problem isn't if you or me are going to die from the virus or not. the problem is that, at some point, the whole health system is going to be overloaded. And this point is reached very quickly in the Philippines. Also data from other countries shows that, for whatever reason, health care workers are affected much more than the general population, which adds to the problem.

    So at some point, there's no capacity to treat completely unrelated health conditions like accident victims or heart problems or whatever else. And that will hit everyone, regardless of age.

    And that is the reason why it needs to be contained and the spread of the virus needs to be slowed down whatever the cost. Especially here, because right now I don't see anybody creating tens of thousands of hospital beds out of thin air in the next few weeks.

    And - relevant here is the number of people requiring hospitalization - this is much more than those who actually die.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 17, 2020
  10. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    If governments don't put into place stringent controls then they rely on the goodwill and intelligence of populations which often have little of either - people still crowding into sports events because they like sports, crowding into pubs to be with their mates, leaving hospital whilst infected because they get bored, meeting infected people but assuming they will be ok and so travel to other countries.

    WHEN the world is dominated by robots (contentious issue this!) then they will have the sense to do the right thing - and if anyone says 'ok, but there would not be any viruses to affect them, then our attention turns to computer viruses!.
     
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