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Vaccinated

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by eskirvin, Mar 18, 2021.

  1. MikeP64

    MikeP64 DI Member Veteran Marines

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    We had our 2nd Maderna shots April 29th. Same shoulder soreness as the first time. This time my chest felt a little inflamed for two days. Didn't hurt, felt more like getting pumped up from bench pressing, except it lasted two days. I also felt warm or flushed, for two days, even though my temperature BP remained normal. :rolleyes: I guess this all part of the nano-bots taking control.
     
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  2. Toto

    Toto DI Senior Member

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    The Phil Variant made it to the chart.
    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    Is there something special that the people of the UK doing to increase these mutations or is it due to their ability to test for genetic mutations? I would think it was the latter and that there are far more variants out there than we currently know about.
     
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  4. Toto

    Toto DI Senior Member

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    I think the chart is UK oriented as there are plenty of mutations about. AFAIK nothing in Negros has undergone genome testing. Europe and US should have more genome labs. Some of these should probably be consolidated. A couple of these I've never heard of and E484K is nicknamed as Eek. The P1 from Brazil is ~200% more transmissible, depending on the study. NegOcc has about 3000 cases, we have 384?, so we're doing OK, but San Carlos flared up to mid 400s. The odds are good that we'll flare up more.
     
  5. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

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    The trend here in Negros Oriental is very bad. We have had our greatest percentage increase in the last two weeks at over 50% each week.

    Below are the results taken from every Monday since the end of the year. You can clearly see when the variants arrived and the case numbers began to climb rapidly. Active cases are the number of people who are currently contagious.

    Thanks to the national authorities who opened travel between the provinces we now have the variants and our case numbers are beginning to explode.

    Date | Active Cases | % change

    May 3 387 59

    April 26 243 52

    April 19 160 27

    April 12 126 -2

    April 5 129 43

    March 30 90 14

    March 22 79 -13

    March 15 91 -6

    March 8 97 -37

    March 1 154 25

    Feb 24 123 -27

    Feb 16 168 -28

    Feb 8 234 -14

    Feb 2 271 27

    Jan 25 214 -2

    Jan 18 219 6

    Jan 12 207 42

    Dec 31 146
     
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  6. Toto

    Toto DI Senior Member

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    I've been watching and have a spreadsheet listing the cases in municipalities every time PGNO comes out with it, and prior to that I stripped them off the map. We are now matching the highest figure I had from the map, which I mentioned previously. I have more numbers than you have. :p I still think we're doing OK and won't get alarmed until we break 500 active cases, an arbitrary number I picked, and when that is reached I'll think the variants are here and we're in new territory. Bacolod is only 600 cases, and it got up to 2,000 last time, but the current 3,000 cases is high for NegOcc. Here's the latest PGNO, it's scatter over several municipalities.
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    Surely Dumaguete City and Sibulan should be grouped together (total 114) as there is no separation between them. People locally should be doing that to get a fairer representation of the risk.
     
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    Last edited by a moderator: May 6, 2021
  8. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    The is quite a bit of separation between Dumaguete and Sibulan once you get away from the population density right around the airport.
     
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  9. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

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    I don't know.
    Ideally, this is a qualitative discussion that associates reason with the quantitative analysis.
    Simply having a longer list of numbers does not make ones case. I could have listed every day in the trend but decided to list one day every week. The idea was to show a trend. That the growth in the number of cases is beginning to take off.
    OK. So we wait a week.

    People do not understand the longer term effects of exponential growth. When it starts it is not significant.
    It appears to be doubling approximately every 10 days.
    2 cases become 4. What's the big deal it is only 2 more cases?
    Now 400 cases
    400 cases becomes 800. Wow 800 cases is a lot now the hospitals are near full and we cannot get enough oxygen.
    20 days later.
    800 becomes 3,200 Golly, wish we had done something.

    Another factor to consider is that in wealthy countries it was estimated that only 1 in 5 infected people were tested. There were actually 5 times more infected people than listed as confirmed cases. The tests were free in wealthy countries and a person essentially received free health care and paid time off work if they were sick. There was some motivation to get tested. Here the situation is very different. People are very poor and the tests cost money. Here we can assume that the ratio of sick people to confirmed cases is much higher.

    The local administration has been doing a good job of rounding up contacts and isolating them in isolation facilities to reduce the spread. (This did not happen in wealthy countries.) This only works within the capacity to do contact tracing. Once the case count gets over the ability to do contact tracing, then this resistance to spread will no longer be effective and the number of infections will grow even faster.

    The national task force screwed up. We were doing great. Most of the economy was working. For the most part, people do not need to travel between islands to do their daily work. Construction was going full tilt, restaurants were open, etc. Members of the tourism industry pressured the task force to require the elimination of quarantine for inter island travel. Now we have the variants that are more contagious and have been knocked off the balance we had achieved. Additional restrictions will have to be put in place that will greatly hurt the economy. The national task force screwed up.
     
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  10. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    I have ever been further out from Sibulan than the populated area - afraid of being hit by an arrow.
     
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