Best Posts in Thread: We have been lucky so far

The big problem here is so many people don't seem to care.

They will wear face masks in the city centre, but as soon as you step outside to any barangay the masks come off.

There is a little social distancing in places where it's compulsory and monitored, and almost none of this where it isn't.

The majority say they don't want to their kids to go back to school but will happily let them all round outside and play with others in the local community.

Many Filipinos have told me they are not worried about the virus, just being fined by authorities.

They abide by the ridiculous backrider policy in downtown, but go a few km outside and there are 3 or 4 on a bike without masks, shields or helmets.

Parties/ gatherings everywhere, as long as there are no police nearby.

Might as well just let everyone get back to normal and get on with life. At least then they might stop asking me if they can borrow some money!

 

Based on the latest DOH numbers (august 12), Negros Oriental has recorded 155 cases of covid-19 in total, of which 49 are currently active.
Relative to the population size, that means a total infection rate of around 0.01% for the province. In comparison, Cebu City has an infection rate of 1.0%, and Cebu province is at 0.37% overall, while the NCR is at 0.64%.
Internationally, the Philippines still has a relatively low infection rate of 0.13% overall, USA (1.6%), Brazil (1.5%) and a whole bunch of others are much worse.
The rate at which infections are growing in the Philippines is worrisome though, about one third of all cases are from the current month of August.

Almost all the cases in Negros Oriental can be traced to people travelling into the province from elsewhere. Almost all, but not quite all. Last month there was a situation with an elderly lady who tested positive after her death, but who had no travel history whatsoever. There may have been more of these unexplained cases, that I missed.
However, these (hopefully very few) unexplained cases are the ones deserving most attention, because they point to something we should all be concerned about, which in covid terminology is called "local transmission".

All in all though, one can argue (as I do) that we have been very lucky so far, and that keeping travel down (ferries/airport, border with Negros Occidental) is a crucial part of why we have been so lucky.
Unfortunately, Negros Occidental has not been so lucky, they currently report about 1,000 cases (including Bacolod), which means the infection rate there is at 0.04%, or about 3 times as high as in Negros Oriental.

However, I don't think we will remain so lucky, the Philippine government has already indicated that money is running out and that people need to get back to work. If that would imply (as I fear) increased travel, then we may soon see a much worse situation than today.

 

duterte will address the nation monday the 17th. he states the country does not have any money left to continue to strict quarentine in manila and surrounds. so logical to expect some easing of the rules in that area at least.

also the latest philstar report is that 2115 filipiinos have died of covid. i think its correct that around 600,000 filipinos die each year from all causes. there would be no human civilization at all if we always reacted to every threat as we have to covid. a strong economy is the first defense against any and all threats that a nation faces.

 

Why bother quarantining the over 60 as no other country does this as far as I know Those rules mentioned above will not be followed and the virus will just be brought back to the quarantined .... so the theory that we would fill up the ICU beds (such as they are) will happen anyway. I will cease following the quarantine rules and take my chances so yes open up the economy and lets dance

 

Taiwan has done very well by accounts I have read.

Everyone wore masks,
Everyone social distanced,
Everyone washed their hands frequently.

Apparently they did not shutdown their economy.
The keyword above seems to be Everyone.

edit: I believe they had a good system for contact tracing.

 

Well, not a guess (the fact that some would be saved) but a process of rational thinking. There would be no point spending millions on cancer treatments, as an example, if there was no evidence that treatment prevents suffering and possible death. Similarly for a virus disease - the fact that it is more acute and easily spread makes it far more imperative to treat it by ALL reasonable means possible.

You note I used the word "reasonable" so I am not talking about shutting down economies where the risk is low or separating bike riders with plastic - but primarily the use of face masks, other PPE, social distancing, track and tracing and a few other things.

My 'evidence', which forms part of my rational thinking (not 'guessing') is two-fold:

1. The experience of treating other contagious diseases and the knowledge of how they spread - the evidence for Covid-19's spread is now overwhelming.
2. The fact that countries which did the things I listed above as 'reasonable' (I especially cite Taiwan) have had very low cases/deaths. So doing reasonable things = lower cases, lower death rates, lower educational and business disruption; doing nothing or very little or doing something but the wrong things (e.g Brazil) = huge number of cases and higher death rates.

Please cite your evidence for doing nothing and not overwhelming hospitals and killing people.

 

Just a thought Guys and Gals

 

I prefer an situation where covid-19 goes around and we try to manage the infections with science based rules then a third world country where economy collapsed and people will go around hungry because no more funds to feed them. And make no mistake, that is where we are heading sitting like a myxomatosis rabbit looking in a headlight waiting for a vaccine.

As long as you can prevent meeting lots of people indoor for longer time the chance to get infected is still neglectable on this island. Hopefully most people can get back to work and the cheapest way to keep us safe on the island is to test and quarantine everybody who enters. But the last part will need to be done thoroughly and if this is something we can trust to be done... Heard from an befriended policeman a test cost the local government 8000php. This is around double compared what a test costs in europe.

Draw your own conclusions if we will loose from the virus or corruption. This is an ongoing epidemic killing more people then any virus disease does.