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Best Posts in Thread: Wow look at the numbers, covid makes it more save?

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danbandanna DI Forum Patron Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Veteran Marines

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Notmyrealname said: ↑

If the virus had mutated (including by recombination with other viruses), there is a possibility it could have ravaged the World - and every age group.
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It is not over yet.....
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danbandanna, Sep 2, 2020

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anti_crazy DI Forum Adept

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Interesting thread. I feel more healthier now then 6 months ago. Maybe due to higher motivation level to exercise in order to weather whatever storm comes my (or our) way; like food rations, further rules and restrictions, quarantine, etc. I can do more pushups, shadow boxing to keep joints loose for longer periods.....it also reduces stress of being inside. I'm in my 60's, I feel great so far. Hope my good health continues. Best wishes to all - hang in there!
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anti_crazy, Aug 26, 2020

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danbandanna DI Forum Patron Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Veteran Marines

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anti_crazy said: ↑

In the past few months several news stories have surfaced stating that the covid death totals have been inflated. The news has been from both liberal and conservative sources so it can't be blamed on general politics.
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source ? I read at least 10 major news sources every morning and there is no mention of this in any one of them.... all national scientific sources report if anything the death toll is higher....
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danbandanna, Sep 12, 2020

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djfinn6230 DI Senior Member

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eskirvin said: ↑

Hello again everyone. I've now experienced COVID responses in 3 countries (Philippines, UAE, Kuwait). In all three places, once lockdowns and other measures are relaxed, numbers rise. Here in Kuwait, they are predicting a "Second, deadlier wave of COVID-19" around October. I ask you, why are lockdowns happening if after they are ended, the numbers go up? Why do most of you not see infection as inevitable? What will happen to this virus to save you?

My older brother's ex-wife cuts hair on a military installation in the US. Their measures are rather draconian as military members are a captive audience with modified rights. The very first day my brother's ex-wife was allowed to cut hair, she was infected with COVID-19. She took it home to her 17 year old son. Her 17 year old son took it to his father's home, infecting his father and his father's new significant other.

In all 4 cases, the worst thing that happened was they all completely lost their sense of smell and sense of taste. Each experienced mild flu type symptoms, stayed at home as required, and went back to school and work afterwards. All 4 cases. My brother isn't well off financially and now had to postpone working on his coursework for PA. His SO was just fine as she is employed as an RN. His ex-wife was let go/fired/whatever you want to call not having a job any longer. His son is now two weeks further behind on his school work, which has always been a problem for him.

In 3 of the 4 cases, their lives are worse off, not due to the disease, but their goverment's and employer's means of dealing with it. How long do you believe people should stay in their cells? Why do you find that option tenable? Do you perhaps lack the empathy you accuse others of lacking?
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Thank you for such a well thought-out post! It gives us all good reasons to pause and think.

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Last edited: Sep 12, 2020

djfinn6230, Sep 11, 2020

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I disagree. I am VERY non-political. I do however criticise politicians of all kinds if I believe them to be wrong, even though as a non-political person some would say I have no right. I criticise women, but I'm not sexist (although the wife has another name for it). I criticise religion, although I'm not religious. I can't be the only one, surely?
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Always a Poppy, Sep 7, 2020

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Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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djfinn6230 said: ↑

Authorities would not look kindly on burning and looting or even mass protests I suspect.
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True, during illegal raves in the UK, participants throw bottles and other objects at the police - how long would they remain standing if they did that in the Philippines!
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Notmyrealname, Sep 7, 2020

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Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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Notmyrealname said: ↑

Possible, but no one would know that for sure at the beginning. We all benefit from analysis by hindsight. If the virus had mutated (including by recombination with other viruses), there is a possibility it could have ravaged the World - and every age group.

If that had happened and there was no lockdown then where would we be now? I doubt the figures could ever be proved accurately either way, so it is all about risk analysis with very little stats available BEFORE important decisions had to be made. They did know that it was spreading worldwide and that it was more dangerous to health than seasonal flu. Also, doing something and then saying it did not have much effect is not always possible. For example: 1000 people were stopped from jumping off a very tall cliff onto hard ground below - pretty obvious we saved 1000 lives BUT 1000 people were stopped from swimming for 3 months, so how many who would have died did not? There are some stats available for deaths due to swimming but they depend on water currents, temperature, dangerous animals present, experience of the swimmers, etc. These are like the unknowns in a virus pandemic. But I do not put this position without recognising the economic and some health factors associated with lockdowns - had the World worn masks from about day 1, been checked at stores, airports, etc. (in whatever way possible at that time) and been educated about the virus and health protocol (and followed the rules!) most lockdowns would have been unnecessary.
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Chicken Little, the boy who cried wolf... This overreaction, economic destruction and unnecessary suffering will likely not be tolerated the next time around. I guess the moral story of those children's stories didn't stick with a lot of people. When the wolf actually shows up we are going to be screwed.
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Rye83, Sep 2, 2020

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Always a Poppy DI Senior Member Restricted Account

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I was not talking about the proportion of population, but the range. This article from a study in Spain points to the psychological issues resulting from strict lockdown of kids. This will be the tip of the iceberg I'm sure and further evidence of ongoing health issues will emerge in time.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/spain-warned-dire-impact-second-043044080.html

I agree that there are some ways that the fallout from the virus will have reduced some categories of death, absolutely. My point though is that much of the negative result on health has yet to be seen. It's not just about the virus mortality rate.
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Always a Poppy, Aug 26, 2020

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SkipJack DI Senior Member

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Philpots said: ↑

Problem is that by years end it could be as high 350,000 400,000. We shall see what we see. Watch this space.
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Correct. The models are predicting a big spike in infections because of winter and many peoples unwillingness to act in a way that resists infecting others. Some countries already have a high infection rate and when doubled will become a problem

This is why it is important to keep the infection rate low or zero. Doubling zero is still zero.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/n...to-come-model-predicts/ar-BB18Vrcz?li=BBnb7Kz
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Last edited: Sep 13, 2020

SkipJack, Sep 12, 2020

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Philpots DI Senior Member Restricted Account

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djfinn6230 said: ↑

Intuitively, 200,000 sounds about right to me. Last year 68,000 people died in the USA from influenza strains for which vaccines were available and about 50% of the population gets vaccinated. For COVID19, it is a more severe strain and more contagious so 200,000 VS 68,000 does not seem out of line. Still there are unconfirmed reports of inflating covid death counts for hospital greater financial reimbursements and a confirmed report of the US CDC admitting that only 6% of the toll are by covid alone, meaning that some fraction of the death toll may be primarily caused by a comorbidity but I think 200k is a good figure.

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Problem is that by years end it could be as high 350,000 400,000. We shall see what we see. Watch this space.
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Philpots, Sep 12, 2020

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