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Wow look at the numbers, covid makes it more save?

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Dutchjob, Aug 25, 2020.

  1. anti_crazy

    anti_crazy DI Member

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    Fear = a very unstable emotion and collectively in large numbers....well, that's how history is made.
     
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  2. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    Fear is a change in emotional state brought on by perceived threats. It enables the 'flight or fight' mechanism, which is protective. I can think of other "unstable emotions" (e.g. love, where a person kills the one they love).

    Fear, like pain, can be of great use in preventing serious risks to life or reducing injury - so we need some to remain healthy, but not too much.
     
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  3. wolvhund

    wolvhund DI Member

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    You stop people from driving, going to bars, or doing much of anything that can pose a danger to them and the mortality rate will go down. There might be some long term benefits of the lockdowns for some, but there is going to be more poverty and poverty is the big killer in places like the Philippines. There will be more malnutrition, more children dying, fewer vaccinations, more social unrest, fewer opportunities. The lockdowns will end up killing more than the virus but it won't be as obvious.
     
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  4. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    Possible, but no one would know that for sure at the beginning. We all benefit from analysis by hindsight. If the virus had mutated (including by recombination with other viruses), there is a possibility it could have ravaged the World - and every age group.

    If that had happened and there was no lockdown then where would we be now? I doubt the figures could ever be proved accurately either way, so it is all about risk analysis with very little stats available BEFORE important decisions had to be made. They did know that it was spreading worldwide and that it was more dangerous to health than seasonal flu. Also, doing something and then saying it did not have much effect is not always possible. For example: 1000 people were stopped from jumping off a very tall cliff onto hard ground below - pretty obvious we saved 1000 lives BUT 1000 people were stopped from swimming for 3 months, so how many who would have died did not? There are some stats available for deaths due to swimming but they depend on water currents, temperature, dangerous animals present, experience of the swimmers, etc. These are like the unknowns in a virus pandemic. But I do not put this position without recognising the economic and some health factors associated with lockdowns - had the World worn masks from about day 1, been checked at stores, airports, etc. (in whatever way possible at that time) and been educated about the virus and health protocol (and followed the rules!) most lockdowns would have been unnecessary.
     
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  5. danbandanna

    danbandanna DI Senior Member Veteran Marines

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    It is not over yet.....
     
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  6. tlrtraveler

    tlrtraveler DI Forum Adept

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    your comment is accurate, ASSUMING that the public can rely on the accuracy of the numbers quoted by the respective govenments. Recent admissions by the CDC show that 90+% of the deaths attributed to Wuflu were bogus and the deaths were a result of other pre-existing conditions. As i recall from the early days in computing, “ garbage in =garbage out” is applicable here
     
  7. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    So how difficult for governments to make sensible decisions when the stats are unreliable and it is a new human virus!

    I think in terms of what the experts really know about the spread of the virus, the infection rates (asymptomatic and symptomatic at all levels), fatality rates, how co-morbidities affect the outcome, the level of immunity achieved, the duration of immunity, the future effects etc., etc., etc., they know very little. We have to wait a long time to have any idea of something near the truth. But I am aware that many non-experts have solved all of these unknowns from their armchairs!

    But in terms of what we personally know about our own local areas and the ways to reduce risk, most non-experts have a fairly good idea. That is what they can base their decisions on - not on the mass of data years away from being analysed and argued over by some of the best brains in the world.
     
  8. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    Chicken Little, the boy who cried wolf... This overreaction, economic destruction and unnecessary suffering will likely not be tolerated the next time around. I guess the moral story of those children's stories didn't stick with a lot of people. When the wolf actually shows up we are going to be screwed.
     
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  9. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    Depends on the pathogen - if it were, for example, a very contagious mutant of Ebola then people will tolerate controls or likely die.
     
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  10. danbandanna

    danbandanna DI Senior Member Veteran Marines

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    had an angry reply but realized that I was just feeding you.... will now just smile at your observations.... I wish you health and a large dose of compassion
     
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