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Peso continues to fall

Discussion in '☋ Expat Section ☋' started by atlargex, Sep 10, 2008.

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  1. David Finlay

    David Finlay DI Junior Member

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    Its interesting following the comments, and more interesting to see how wrong my considered opinion/valued judgment/wishful thinking/guesses have been. With oil less than $90 its got no chance of $200 by Christmas and the Aussie dollar is still heading south. Looks like I missed the peak for the Aussie dollar. d*mn, did not hear the bell ring.

    Its interesting to hear whats happening in China, thanks.
     
  2. garbonzo

    garbonzo DI Senior Member Veteran Marines

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    I agree. That is interesting....Where in China are you? A lot of Australians are under the mistaken belief that internal Chinese consumption will compensate largely for a falloff in the US and Europe etc....I didn't believe it for a moment...China looks very vulnerable to me....the banking system is precarious, leveraged into companies that will see cashflow slow markedly....or, worse, companies that don't exist...There will be tremendous social issues if the factories start closing in large numbers, throwing millions of workers on city streets that aren't home...

    I have no idea where the USD will go...too volatile to call....but the peso looks under pressure. OFW numbers are dropping off....and the ones out there already - are reducing remittances....foreign investment will likely go near zero (been a huge drop in Thailand already)....peso is going to be hammered over the next year....or three...
     
  3. OP
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    atlargex

    atlargex DI Forum Adept

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    I live in Zhuhai & my job takes me to various cities in China on a regular basis. I do not see China having similar financial problems, there are no subprime issues in China as banks do not lend as liberally as their western counter part. Get this, under government mandate the minimum down payment for a house here is 40%....and no mortgage allowed on your second home if you're still making payments your first one....if anything, the banks here are holding way too much cash. Factory closings are a big issue here. Since beginning of 2008, approximately 100k traditional manufacturing factories in China have gone out of business or moved elsewhere due to a string of new labor law, labor rate and utility hikes----put those together with monetary lendings to business big or small from banks were virtually none existence for the past twelve months....I'm sure you get the picture. Again---That's 100,000 factories gone!!!! Think about all the tax revenues and employments lost. And David, I wouldn't worry too much about Aussie dollar unless you're planning to exchange for USD....which if you are, I would highly suggest that you convert your money now as USD will most certainly go up against major currencies around the world....at least in the next couple of years before an imminent economic recovery around the world.
     
  4. Timn8ter

    Timn8ter DI Forum Adept

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    I find it interesting that the US stock market went up in anticipation of the "bail-out" then down when it failed to pass the House. When the Senate picked it up and passed it, the stock market dropped again. This morning pre-market trading indicates it will continue to fall. Sunday on the 60 Minutes news show they reported on "credit default swaps". Apparently there are some $58 trillion worth of these with little to no reserves to back them up. I also wonder what psychological impact the DJIA will have if it drops below the 10,000 mark.
     
  5. Timn8ter

    Timn8ter DI Forum Adept

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    Gold, US dollar, Yen continue to rise. Euro, oil, stocks falling. Peso looks to stay low or continue to drop.
    Just my humble input.
     
  6. Timn8ter

    Timn8ter DI Forum Adept

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    atlargex

    atlargex DI Forum Adept

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    US not a safe haven....yet.

    Not sure if I would consider US equities a safe haven, yet. But for sure US markets will need to recover first (or at least looks like they're recovering) before the rest of the world can start moving out of this slump.
     
  8. Teacher

    Teacher DI Senior Member Showcase Reviewer

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    Where is the bottom?

    I can see no light at the end of this tunnel right now.Suddenly, the famous bubble has popped. Financial institutions on Wall Street collapsed like a house of cards. The fallout is being felt far and wide, across the oceans to Asia and Europe. How could the American government watch this kind of game (Sh*t) going on with folded hands and not protect the people?

    Allowing Wall Street to regulate itself is risky. It’s more so when the “fat cats” saw little risk doing crazy things. The financial storm is not expected to die down any time soon. The current crisis could well change the world’s financial order. The dollar has been weak, and the U.S. national debt has been climbing steadily to close to US$10 trillion. A new financial order may emerge in Europe. Before we hit bottom I think it is time to change to GOLD! waiting for the Financial institutions to recover may be to late for many of us. What do my fellow forum members think ? :confused:


    And I am very interested what you think atlargex!
     
  9. TheDude

    TheDude DI Forum Patron Highly Rated Poster

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    The dollar is going up. In financial bad times for everyone, the dollar becomes a safe haven again. Right now the Euro is lower than it has been (against the dollar) in quite a long time. These are good times for the dollar. Not good times for people with stocks. Good times for entrepreneurs looking for openings in the shakeup. Not good times for people losing their jobs.
     
  10. tubigboy

    tubigboy DI Forum Adept

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    Sell oil stocks! Buy US green backs! Oil will go below $75 by December or early January! Peso will be at 50p to the dollar by December. I said this about 3 months ago.
    China has built too many of these huge buildings and there is NOBODY, I mean NOBODY in them! Some of these buildings are only 3-4 years old and they are already falling apart. Real shoddy workmanship. I walked off of the new 'main' street with all these new buildings and went about 2 blocks. Low and behold, ghetto apartments everywhere and they were jam packed with people! Get this, they are still building more buildings! I counted 40+ tower cranes from my hotel room!
    Numerous riots that are being hushed and ignored by the media too. Apparently, some of the people (farmers) do not like being pushed into the cities and there is no where to live because these new buildings are too expensive to live in. You go out to the country side and there are total villages just abandoned. Its kind of creepy.
    Its strange, you go into a Pizza Hut and everyone is drinking a beverage. I guess, no one can afford the meals.
     
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