⌛ Peso continues to fall

You will have to excuse me, but this is a pet peeve of mine. I'm calling bullshit on this one. It's such an easy thing to regurgitate something you see as a headline in the media, but not so easy to actually backup what you say.

My first problem is the position that the U.S. is actually an empire. I can't really argue against this because while there are many different angles from which you can attempt to tag the U.S. as an empire, you didn't really make much of an effort.

Perhaps we can start out with the Wikipedia entry of "American Empire." Again, many different arguments for and against are mentioned here, but from your meager backup of your statement, one of them seems to stand out the greatest for me.

Emotions; there are lots of them going around these days. People are having a field day pointing to the end of American this and American that. This puts you in the company of media fear mongers and crazies such as Ahmadenutjob of Iran.

I'm going to continue with quotes because others have explained my own point of view much better than I can. In the argument of America as an empire, I subscribe to Thomas Barnett's description.

Since we are talking about the global financial crisis (not an economic crisis, I'm with McCain when he says the fundamentals of our economy is still strong) then I assume you are referring to an American Empire in that context. In this sense, the "American Empire" is globalism. America has created something which trancends itself. It injected "American Empire" into the blood of the world and it will never go away. The genie has been let out of the bottle and nobody will be able to put it back in.

Thomas Barnett has another great quote along these lines.

And this...

So quit it with the end of times speech. Some people are in a panic. Smart people are nervous but recognizing the tremendous opportunities open to us today.

And why do people get such a kick out of talking about the end of "American Empire?" Americans could give a rats @ss about empire. We just want to keep chasing that same thing that enables us to live the lives we want to live. And thanks to the American contribution of globalism, billions more people on this planet can do the same.

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Calling bullshit continued...

Timn8ter,

What is up with some of the things you have been saying in this thread? Here is more.

Your doom and gloom posts echo that of mainstream media, so I think you are as influenced by the media as anyone else. Many people don't share your (or the media's) pessimism.

Are you suggesting the future should be a graph of growth which solely goes up and to the right? Booms and busts are natural to a healthy economy. The busts in particular help clear out dead wood and from the chaos, opportunities are created. Warren Buffet has said he hopes to live through many more recessions (though we still haven't even hit the technical definition of a recession yet.) We also learn from our mistakes and the world economic system becomes stronger for it.

Yeah, and so does talking about empires.

 

thedude - i do disagree about america not being an empire from a foreigners perspective. ok it possesses limited sovereignty over conquered lands and its citizens may view it internally as a variety of things "a party country", "a country where hard work will be rewarded" or whatever. but citizens of empires, never gave any importance to foreign controlled lands. it was only the limited few with a vested interested that cared.
Foreigners see it differently - americas foreign policy has tried to influence political affairs around the world for so long now. in the 1930's there were only 13 countries that would be deemed democratic, now there are 85 with alot of others running under the cloak of democracy (source neill ferguson - all your semantics arguments can be directed to him). america has really tried to push that change as a foreign policy and americas success in exporting media across the world has created a perception of americanization and adoption of ameriocon ethos/habits around the world, foreigners view these influences as that of the products of an empire, as utilized within their lives.

rant time

and enough about the keynes - his revised policies are bog standard accepted practice, has his interest rate manipulation leveled out the booms and busts in the american economy, did it work to stimulate investment or demand in japan anytime lately. people and societies follow irrational models, they do not always fit keynes integrated algorithm of savings, demand, supply and production and however much we want to believe that the government runs everything and everybody reacts the way they should to stimuli - they do not and we do not.

So what, we are in another down cycle, this one is coupled with a housing crash which will make it more severe, but we have seen it all before and still got richer and fatter (i for one have a much better bicycle) as the doom and gloom crew's voices faded we will talk about this recession as little as we talk about the last one in the near future.

I really hope that china can improve its $2000 per capita income. It would be real nice if its incomes could move into the top 100 richest countries soon, as everybody deserves a better life


more ranting - this is a vitriolic one
and democratic debate is bullsh*t - how much has the usa presidential election cost so far, how much coverage has this debate generated and nobody can tell u what the policies of the government will be in 12 months, let alone over 5 years.
i will bet 1000 peso nobody on this board, would be able to fill me in on the 2-3 year project plan of either party, to a level of understanding that would be labeled by a business as 'very rough first draft'
that is the result of debate - everybody interprets it as they want. talkie talkie much different from doie doie. change, change what does that mean outside the public relations world. we will find out in 5 years, it will take the historians another 5-10 years to see the facts clearly, as there have so much 'debate' to remove before we see the actual picture

just publish your plan in detail tell us where u are going to build the roads the hospitals, what u are going to regulate, what schemes we will do, tell us how much it is going to cost and who will pay what. tell us who u will invade on what conditions. tell us under what circumstances u will regulate the private sector, what the central bank will be doing. how much social security u will provide etc and then we choose. boring dull but that is administration. that is what u get after 5 years. or u could not have a plan and shout slogans as u try to manipulate support within departments, do knee jerk bad management to deliver soundbites placating media moods.
political debate bull - we do not debate, we satisfy our need to feel empowered, make lifestyle associations, feel partisan, feel we are on the cool table with the cool kids

 

the Ozzie Dollar taking a nose dive, Australian dollar crashes to .63 cents
so too the British Pound, thanks to the Icelandic banks.

1 GBP = 1.69980 USD
1 GBP = 80.8339 PHP

 

if u are not in the us dollar or gold, it will be a tough time for a while. i for one have lost a shed load(enough to retire) this last month, but it makes u less complacent, brings more fight to the belly. the street children were unable to emphasize with my predicament, we will be more than ok.
prediction - peso to continue appreciating against not dollar currencies, due to it remittance tie with the dollar, until confidence improves

 

Whoa, slow down there ladies, I said that no country is near our military capabilities. Also, I said that "MAYBE" in 20 years China will surpass us economically.
So what is the peso to the dollar now? I still say 50 to 1 by the end of December!
This problem did not happen overnight and it will not be fixed over night. Give it some time and have some faith. I say d*mn the torpedoes!

 

I am not sure how relavant the per capita GDP figure for China is, in sofar as China has about 800,000,000 dirt poor farmers. So any figure like that will always be low. What I often think of is the maybe 200,000,000 to 300,000,000 middle class, who have/had substantial purchasing power.

 

.63 cents U.S. I just keep telling myself, if I do not buy anything I will not realise how poor I have just become.
The Aussie dollar should not be that low, as the fundimentals of the Australian economy are sound, or so we are told.

 

Bloody oath David, I'm spewing...we're off to Hawaii next month and the mainland afterwards, swinging thru the Philippines (negros and camiguin) on the way back and this trip has gotten considerably more expensive...Today's banking announcement from Rudd might turn the AUD around if it entices some substantial capital inflow....sure hope so...

Meanwhile watching the superannuation go backwards and wondering when/if we'll be retiring.....

 

By the way....any truth to the rumour that San Carlos is Negros best kept secret? Haven't been there myself but I've had a couple Bacolod relatives raving about the place....

 

david - china gets alot of press and it's growth rate is considerably more that real growth in the west. but sentiment perceive that within a generation it will be the same at the west, that is just not possible
in historic terms china has had the biggest gdp for 18 out of the last 20 centuries, it had the worlds highest per capita income up to the 1500, but has seen a dramatic reduction from 1830's until 1980's(currently it is about 100th place).
India also due to its population has historically been china's nearest rival in terms of gdp
both countries are now dirt poor and will still be dirt poor next time they have the bigger gdp levels than the usa or europe. 4 out of the 10 richest people in the world are indian, but u can not just count the richest 5% of the population. the redistribution of income is minimal in both countries and they have a very limited middle class and a working class with very few bargaining chips.
per capita income is a better indicator of wealth, it will china a long time to get back to where it was in 1500

500 year gdp chart attached